The newly formed minority government has survived its first month in office without much trouble. The ruling MSZP set about transforming the general perception of its performance, while the SZDSZ was seeking its place in the opposition. The Fidesz has again argued in favour of early elections, and started to prepare for the takeover. In the end of May, the leaking of a private speech by leader Viktor Orbán caused moments of embarrassment to the opposition party – presumably not for the last time.
By May 2008, Hungarian party politics have reached the end of a period of transition. This transition has begun in February, and will only be completely over after the SZDSZ’s internal elections on June 7th. Some of the changes that have taken place could be foreseen in 2007: that the issues with then the heaviest presence on the agenda – the health insurance act, or, more generally, the healthcare reform and the referendum initiated by the Fidesz – would, in spring, cede their places to new matters. Other changes, though not necessarily surprising, could not be predicted in all details. Examples are the shift in the focus and style of governing announced by PM Ferenc Gyurcsány in February, the breaking-up of the coalition or, as its consequence, the formation of the minority government. The whole period has seen, and has often been influenced by, the internal power struggle of the SZDSZ, reignited after evidence of corruption had emerged about last year’s election of party officials. Overall, it can be said that in May 2008, Hungarian politics was centred around fundamentally different issues than it had been in early February. Thus while the framework for politics – an untrustworthy government and a popular opposition – has remained the same, the new circumstances have prompted the parties to redefine their and their rivals’ positions. For some (Fidesz), this was more of an opportunity, whereas for others (MDF), a necessity. The question is how long the spell that has begun with the formation of the minority government will last; it is possible that – if short –, in time, it will be considered part of the transition described above.
For the first time in eight months, the percentage of topics favourable to the government has exceeded that of opposition topics: it has hit a one-year high even though the free democrats have been counted in the opposition (Graph 1). The percentage of opposition topics has slightly diminished, but the real change was the surge in the number of government topics. One single value may not mean much; however, results in the next few months may show how successful the government’s efforts to alter its style will have been. As for the number of appearances, the MSZP has kept its leading position, although the Fidesz was more active than in April (Graph 2). The loss of ground of the SZDSZ is striking: while last month, they have been a constant presence in the news because of the crisis of the coalition and their internal conflicts, in May, they have barely finished ahead of the MDF. This may be due to the internal campaign for the liberal party’s leadership, which has mostly been waged in the background.
After the split of the coalition, the MSZP has formed a one-party minority government. Ferenc Gyurcsány has somewhat modified the government’s structure with respect to the priorities of the coming period, merging for example the ministries for economy and development. When choosing the new members of the cabinet, part of his aim was to increase his support within the socialist party. In May, the MSZP’s messages reflected two intentions reaching much beyond this month: transforming the generally unfavourable view of their performance, and showing that the minority government is not necessarily doomed to failure. Their task is made easier by the fact that it is their rivals who have a point to prove: without any extraordinary events, the cabinet is not likely to fall. In May – aside from a few inconveniences –, legislative work proceeded unhindered – the activity of the Parliament has not (yet) been set back by the breaking-up of the coalition. On the other hand, it is true that so far, the opposition has not endeavoured to put the government under serious pressure, thus the socialists did not have to face a real challenge. After all, even if people just became used to the present situation, it would be a success for the MSZP.
Because of the referendum and the crisis of the coalition that followed, it was first in May that the government had the opportunity to follow the principles laid down by Ferenc Gyurcsány in his address assessing the past year. The main agent of change – besides the Prime Minister, who has outlined a positive vision for the future –, was Tamás Székely. The new health minister was given the task of limiting the damage caused by his predecessors: he has to make sure that healthcare – originally intended to be an asset for the Left – at least cannot be used against it in the next electoral campaign. Differing from former minister Ágnes Horváth in his background, style as well as appearance, he has, in most of the cases, appeared as a problem solver. Decision has been made about repealing the health insurance act (08. 05.); at the same time, the minister announced that a new plan would be worked out by September – with the participation of professional organizations (14. 05.). The withdrawal of the act is by no means a success for the government – it is perhaps, as Fidesz healthcare expert István Mikola suggested, one for the opposition –, but in this way, debacles like that of March 9th can be avoided. A referendum is nonetheless likely to take place about the multi-player health insurance system, as the signatures collected by civilians – led by a certain Albert couple – have been authenticated by the National Elections Committee (19. 05.).
From the beginning of May, the SZDSZ has been in opposition, creating some sort of competition for the parties already there. The new situation may be particularly harmful to small conservative MDF, which tries to appeal to the same group of voters – people in political centre, disillusioned with both the MSZP and the Fidesz – which the free democrats may now reach. This circumstance has had its impact on the behaviour of both parties. The MDF attempted to prove that it is a true opposition party, while the SZDSZ is not. It is with this consideration in mind that party leader Ibolya Dávid called upon the government to ask for a vote of confidence (05. 05.), and suggested that each opposition party declare in advance its refusal to support next year’s budget (17. 05.). The liberal party is in an awkward position, as it can only enjoy the benefits of being in opposition (potential protest votes, or a better bargaining position with the MSZP) if it really seems to be in opposition, but, thinking about the future, it cannot irreparably spoil its relationship with the socialists. Accordingly, the SZDSZ has occasionally voted against the government – after interpellations and at the committee hearing of István Gyenesei before his appointment as minister (14. 05.) –, but in more important matters, they have not (yet) deserted the MSZP.
For the Fidesz, the formation of the minority government was yet another sign of the country being in a sort of illegitimate state, which needs to be remedied as soon as possible. In the first half of the month, the opposition party had two main messages: firstly, that there is a crisis in Hungary in several fields, which can only be managed after a national consensus has been reached; secondly, that early elections are needed for the sake of the economy (01., 05., 09. and 10. 05.). Later, Viktor Orbán emphasized that change was imminent, therefore the Fidesz had to start preparing for it (20. 05.). The conservative party leader made – and will presumably continue to make – efforts in order to picture the government as a “lame duck”, and himself as a responsible politician consciously preparing for the takeover. However, he was unpleasantly surprised when details of a private conversation of his were leaked (22. 05.). In this, the leader of the opposition has allegedly said among others that after assuming power, the Fidesz would halt major state investments, change the way of determining pensions and that in the first two years of the cycle, “many things will hurt many people”. Some of those analyzing the possible consequences of this speech went as far as comparing it to Ferenc Gyurcsány’s controversial Balatonőszöd speech in autumn 2006, whereas others argued that the opposition party itself might have been behind the leaking. It is more probable that Viktor Orbán did indeed intend the above thoughts – in such a form – for a limited audience, but their coming to light will not drastically change the political power relations. In all likelihood, his words are going to haunt him in the next campaign – that is exactly what the MSZP and the SZDSZ tried to make sure by keeping the issue on the agenda (from 23. 05.).
An interesting aspect of the list of politicians who have appeared on the agenda is that its members mostly came into the limelight in connection with issues favourable to them (Graph 3). Viktor Orbán – whose speech has later been interpreted by Fidesz spokesman Péter Szíjjártó – is only partly a counterexample, as well as István Gyenesei. The latter was in the news because he was appointed Minister for Local Governments, and in order to create this new ministry, the act detailing the government’s structure needed to be amended (13. 05.). Other than that, he came under fire from the Fidesz because of the alleged irregularities in Somogy County from the time when he had been the president of its general assembly (03. and 19. 05.). PM Ferenc Gyurcsány, after a busier March, has returned to his average level of activity of the period after September 2006; the same can be said about Viktor Orbán (Graph 4).
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